Nickel Market Crumbles As White House Policies Prove Powerless

As global nickel prices continue their steady decline, the market faces its most challenging period in years with prices hovering around $15,295 per ton in September 2025. This represents a 5.67% drop compared to the same period last year, highlighting the ongoing struggle in the nickel industry.

The main issue is simple—there’s too much nickel and not enough demand. Global inventories have skyrocketed from 38,200 tons in May 2023 to a massive 230,600 tons by April 2025. Analysts now predict prices will remain between $15,155 and $16,000 per ton through the end of 2025, with further drops expected next year.

Indonesia dominates the market, controlling about two-thirds of world supply. The country’s nickel output is set to rise by 8.5% in 2025, pushing its global market share to 63.4%. Despite some environmental regulations, Indonesia’s production continues to flood the market.

The electric vehicle sector, once viewed as nickel’s saving grace, hasn’t grown as quickly as expected. While battery nickel use is up 10-15%, the overall EV market has slowed. The expiration of U.S. federal EV incentives has further weakened demand signals.

White House efforts to secure domestic supply chains have fallen short of addressing the fundamental oversupply problem. Despite policy initiatives aimed at boosting American mineral independence, these measures can’t offset the global surplus that’s keeping prices down.

Stainless steel remains the largest use for nickel, with Chinese production up 12% this year. However, this increase isn’t enough to balance the market. China’s recent aggressive stockpiling strategy involving 100,000 tonnes of nickel since December 2024 has provided some price support, but hasn’t reversed the overall bearish trend.

Price volatility has been extreme, with nickel falling from $20,000 per ton in May 2024 to $14,150 in April 2025. The market has seen multiple rebounds and drops since then, including a brief recovery to $15,880 by April 24 before retreating again.

Without major production cuts or a surprising surge in demand, the nickel market is likely to remain depressed well into 2026, when prices could fall further to around $14,431 per ton.