Despite years of predicted demise, America’s coal industry is showing surprising signs of life heading into 2025, with consumption projected to jump 7% to 439 million short tons. It’s a surprise twist in what many energy experts thought was a one-way ticket to obsolescence. Coal will generate about 15% of U.S. electricity next year – way down from its heyday, but hey, not dead yet.
The resurgence isn’t happening by accident. Recent executive orders have thrown coal a lifeline, with $625 million reappropriated to modernize or extend existing plants. Administration officials opened up millions of acres for new coal leasing on public lands. Funny how a pen stroke in Washington can change fortunes in Appalachia. This stands in stark contrast to the U.S. oil dominance which reached 13.3 million barrels daily in December 2023.
Production is responding, albeit cautiously. Q2 2025 output hit 128.1 million short tons, though the annual production increase of about 2% still trails consumption growth. Power plants are drawing down stockpiles as a result. By year-end, electric-power coal stocks are expected to plummet to 106 million short tons – a 17% nosedive from 2024 levels.
Make no mistake, though. This isn’t coal’s grand comeback tour. The industry still faces brutal economic realities. Wind, solar, batteries, and natural gas are simply cheaper. About 6 gigawatts of coal capacity are still scheduled to retire in 2025 alone, with more to follow. The unusually cold winter in early 2025 contributed significantly to the 13% rise in consumption during the first half of the year.
Global Energy Monitor reported that about 25.4 gigawatts of planned retirements have been delayed – not canceled, just postponed by a few years. Like postponing a root canal. It still needs to happen eventually.
U.S. coal exports aren’t helping much either, dropping 11% in the first half of 2025. Weak global prices and reduced Chinese demand have hit exporters hard. The 34% reciprocal tariff imposed by China in April 2025 has particularly damaged metallurgical coal shipments.
The remaining U.S. coal fleet – about 190 gigawatts – is still substantial but represents a 43% decline from 2010 peaks. Regulatory rollbacks may have bought coal some time, but the industry’s long-term prognosis remains challenging. Coal isn’t dead, but it’s definitely on life support.
References
- https://thecoalhub.com/u-s-coal-2025-demand-up-7-as-stocks-draw-down-ahead-of-2026-retirements.html
- https://energiesmedia.com/eia-outlook-us-coal-use-to-rise-7-in-2025/
- https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66524
- https://energyinnovation.org/expert-voice/what-is-coals-future-in-the-united-states/
- https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/
- https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48587
- https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/coal-production
